Prosperity Ahead?

The sun rotates around the Earth.

The earth is at the center of the universe and DOES NOT ROTATE at all.

I've got my thinking cap.

I KNOW this is true, because I read it on the internet.

The problem with the internet is that anyone can find information that supports their beliefs.  Any beliefs.  And as educated consumers of information we need to make sure that we do not fall into this trap.

We write about being prepared for whatever the future holds.  We talk about the collapse of the fiat currency system and learning to make fire.   So one would not be crazy to think we were doom and gloom thinkers.  But we are not.

Although the idea of a Great Reset of society seems very likely in many ways.  There is also evidence to show that the next great economic boom is just around the corner.

This is not what you hear much about these days.

The fact that we are not hearing about the coming boom might actually be a sign that it is true.  Who was saying that the greatest economic boom in the history of the world was just around the corner in 1982?  When the Dow Jones was down 22% after 16 years?   Well I was 14 so it wasn’t me.  I was just doing dare-devil tricks on my skateboard.

How much doom and gloom talk did you hear before the bubble burst?  Everything was great….Until it wasn’t.  Well now everything might be shitty…..till it isn’t.

It pays to be a contrary thinker sometimes.  If everyone is beginning to feel that the end is near,could it be that we are at a new beginning?

My friend Gary Scott puts the case for the economic boom being around the corner like this…

We do not believe that there will be a collapse.  Time is not running out before everything falls apart.   If there is a shortage of time, it is a limit on how much time we have to get ready for the next, “bigger than ever”,  boom.    History strongly supports the view that we are just about at the end of a natural 15 year bear market that began in 1999 and the next 15 year bull will be the strongest ever.  I am not surprised that younger people miss this fact.  They did not live through the third worst recession of the last 100 years in the early 1970s.  I did and I was sure the collapse was coming then.  Only after the 4th worst recession in the 1980s did I figure the “it gets better after it gets worse” part out.  Since It took me 20 years to figure out the power of cycles… I am not surprised that so many who have not had this global experience of 40 years are seeing this recession in such a negative way.

The chart below of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1900 shows this trend… shows the bear markets 1906 to 1915,  1929 to 1942, 1966 to 1982 and 2000 to now.

Graphical Evidence that doom is not ahead and the bear is nearly through.

Note that what Gary calls WWIII was the cold war.

So what we propose is not doom and gloom, but resilience.  We recommend being ready for whatever the future holds.  By being prepared you will be able to prosper no matter what the future holds.  If you can survive the hard times with your head above water then you will be prepared to seize opportunities when they arrive.

I find it helpful to remember:

There are known knowns; there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don’t know.

-Donald Rumsfeld

OK This might not be the most elegant of statements but conceptually it is sound.  It is the unknown unknowns that can change the whole picture.  In 1982 it was computers and the internet.  What’s next?

We don’t know.

Teleportation or  Mr. Fusion, like in “Back to the Future”?    I don’t know but I can’t wait to find out!

Have a great day.

 

  • Glimin

    Judging from the foil hat picture, I’m guessing the next big thing will be full disclosure that extraterrestrials exist.

    • Trey Morrison

      The aliens are coming! The aliens are coming!

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1422833120 Aili McKeen

    I believe you. Its like how the coldest of winter follows the solstice – the longest night… you’d think that with the northern hemisphere getting the least sun on Dec. 21 that it would be pretty cold before, but the thermal effect of our atmosphere delays the cold. Its like that with the economy. We had our solstice – our low point, our longest dark night. Now, we just have to wait for winter to run its course, and we’re back in the boom time.

    It was how the “Regan Years” followed the economic policies of Carter, and how G.W. kept things going after the summer solstice of the Clinton times.

    • http://www.theresilientfamily.com/ The Resilient Family

      I was just having that conversation with my daughter.  The days are starting to get longer but the weather is still getting colder.  She did not get it and I had a hard time explaining it.  

      Thanks for your thoughtful comment and for reading!

  • nedredkin

    the whole thang sounds spot on accurate.
    especially the part about it being all good as long as we survive the hard times.
    any particular point of view of how hard and how long those times are that we are so far surviving?  
    btw, we are to infer that peak oil is past and the overall upward trend in that chart no longer has oil as the driving force, right?  
    and that the new oligarchs with their new techology (gotta love that mr fusion) are going to happily share it with us petrol addicts.  

    • http://www.theresilientfamily.com/ The Resilient Family

      How long will the hard times last?  Now that is the question.  Looking at the chart it looks like we have about three more years.  But if we assume that peak oil is a reality and there is no “Mr Fusion” then this graph might just be the first half of a bell curve that is about to head the other way!  Best to be prepared for all contingencies!

      • nik7d

        hm
        the way it is phrased
        “But if we assume that peak oil is a reality…”
        just about convinces us that everything is good
        kind of
        perhaps peak oil, global warming, industrial age overreach,… are all just ploys.

        somehow the friend gary scott is not so reassuring
        specially after considering technical analysis of that chart
        this last leg down has been the mildest of all the legs down
        and the entire upward chart is obviously all about petrol discovery and extraction

        his scenario hits on that analogy that all boats rise in a rising tide
        wonder if he is familiar with the level of corruption (mf global, aig, lehman,…..) and how all the biggest ships are rushing around crushing all others in the harbor?  
        wonder why all those big ships would do that if they were expecting another rising tide?  

  • Jdeslondes

    Seems to me that you might not want Scott to contribute anything, nor use any of his ideas.
    He makes about as much sense as Bernake.  Big difference from past decades.  Massive money printing = complete loss of confidence of the public = hyperinflation = collapse. The damage has already been done.  The GMO seed sown.  Now we get a plant that poisons all that it touches.

  • Anonymous

    believing gary scott = wishful thinking?  

    • Anonymous

      Perhaps… On the other hand, the biggest danger investors always face is getting too psychologically invested in an outcome and/or being convinced that their worldview is the correct worldview.

      I’m probably inclined to discount Scott’s economic boom scenario, but he at least makes a credible case, and we would all do well to constantly challenge and try to disprove our investing beliefs. There’s often great utility in contrarian thinking, although it’s damn hard to actually discipline yourself to look objectively at other points of view.

Filed in: Head Stuff, Money Stuff

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